By GERALD WINEGRAD

Recent distorted readings of census data showing a decline in the number of American births and the population growth rate have led to outrageous conclusions in the media. Major news outlets repeatedly have called for women to bear more children and for increased immigration. Examples of this include a Feb. 7 Washington Post editorial: “The U.S. Needs More Immigrants and More Babies.”

The Post editorial board goes as far as to opine that the U.S., largely due to its relatively high population growth rate, “has remained dynamic and prosperous, even as other major industrialized societies have stagnated” alleging that this “engine of prosperity is sputtering out.” This poppycock conclusion leads to a call for “robust population growth” to provide more workers, and promote intellectual exchanges, idea creation, entrepreneurship, and competition. “National policy should promote vigorous population expansion,” by providing incentives for women to have more babies and by allowing more legal immigrants to enter the country, The Post argued.

Similar media coverage propagates this distorted “baby bust” and suggests that it could threaten our national security, cause economic stagnation, increase tax burdens because of an aging population, spur a decline in U.S. technology. and make it more difficult for the U.S. to compete globally. The sky-is-falling nature of this coverage is faulty and a blot on journalistic integrity.

Let’s examine the roots of the data leading to this hand-wringing. The 2020 census disclosed that women had fewer children than in pre-pandemic years, continuing a trend. The data also documents that the fertility rate of American women has dropped below the 2.1 children natural replacement level. The rate of U.S. population growth did reach a record low in 2021 due to COVID-19 deaths, along with fewer births and less immigration (245,000 legal immigrants).

But the population of the U.S. is not declining nor is it projected to decline anytime in the distant future. Despite nearly one million COVID-19 deaths, U.S. population has grown by 1,136,618 since the April 1, 2020 census count. The U.S. population is projected to continue to increase, growing from 331 million in 2020 to 352 million in 2035 and reach 363 million by 2050. That’s 32 million more people in 30 years.

U.S. births, coupled with net immigration, resulted in the U.S. population increasing in 2020 by more than all but eight other countries. And, U.S. birthrates (but not actual births), increased in each of the last four years (2019-2022). So, where’s the supposed problem of declining population? There is no such problem. The real problem is too many people.

From 2000 to 2018, U.S. births numbered between 3.7 million and 3.9 million. As recently as 2014, births increased from the previous year. Doomsayers hyperventilate over “only” 3.6 million U.S. children born in 2020 and births declining over the last decade. By comparison, the 1920 census documented 2.9 million births. The economy has advanced quite well since then without the rather draconian and costly measures some pundits are calling for to induce women to bear more children. Note that 40% of children born in 2020 were born out of wedlock and 4% were born to teenage mothers.

The U.S. population is the third highest of any nation. When I was born in 1944, there were 138 million people in the U.S.; 102 years ago, it was 106 million. That’s more than a tripling since the 1920 census. Global population grew by 74 million in 2021 to 7.9 billion and is on course to reach 9.7 billion by 2050. It took Homo sapiens until 1800 to reach 1 billion; another billion were added by 1930; and this year we will reach 8 billion, adding a billion people in 11 years. Does anyone really believe this profligate growth is good for our planet?

The decline in the number of births in the U.S. and the total fertility rate to 1.78 births per woman of childbearing age should be celebrated. It is evidence of a country that has elevated the status of women, providing them will expanded educational and employment opportunities and reproductive freedom. The lowest U.S. fertility rate was 1.77 in 1978 and our economy did not stagnate, performing exceedingly well.

Continued population growth sets the United States apart from most other developed countries, whose populations are already stable or declining or will be in the near future. Globally, 39 countries are projected to have smaller populations by 2050. Nations with already contracting populations include economic powerhouses like Japan, Germany, Russia, and South Korea. Other advanced nations with declining populations include Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Finland.

Our nation also stands out as net immigration will exceed natural increases (birth over deaths). Already, there are an estimated 46 million immigrants in our nation of E Pluribus Unum — out of many, one.

I learned 50 years ago that there is hardly any environmental problem that is not exacerbated by population growth — global warming, the extinction crises, water shortages, polluted air and water, deforestation, wetland destruction, increased human and toxic waste. sprawling development and loss of open space, depleted fisheries, and increased farm pollution.

Population growth spurs forest loss, more traffic, and more runoff to the Chesapeake. This forest stripping is not for a shopping center or housing development — it’s for a new Hillsmere Elementary school in Annapolis. (Eric Epstein)

Since the Chesapeake Bay restoration formally began in 1983, watershed population has increased from 13.5 million to 18.5 million, with another 4 million projected by 2050. These increases have much to do with failing efforts, and present major obstacles to future improvements. As the U.S. EPA Bay Program notes: The decline in the health of the Chesapeake Bay is linked to the rise in the watershed’s population.

Maryland’s population continues to grow by at least 7% each decade and reached 6.2 million in 2020. We are the fifth most densely populated state and projected to grow by another 562,000 people by 2040. Maryland’s population stood at 1.5 million in 1920 and 2.3 million in 1950. Anne Arundel County grew to 588,261 people in 2020, an increase of 161,000 since 1990 and is projected to reach 632,206 by 2040. The Census of 1920 recorded 48,400 residents.

More forest is cleared for more people in more homes as the de-forestation of Forest Drive continues. (Carol Swan)

Economic growth does not require population increases. We can grow our economy by using education and technology to increase productivity. We live in a world of finite resources with food, water, and health care insecurity. With slower or zero population growth, we can make greater progress toward resolving economic and environmental issues and boost our productivity as a nation and the quality of life for all of us. Calling for population growth to increase the number of workers flies in the face of the need to find employment for the 6.3 million currently unemployed.

A bipartisan group of U.S. Senate visionaries recognized the urgency of stabilizing population, introducing the Global Resources, Environment, and Population Act of 1981. The act declared it U.S. policy to promote national population stabilization and encouraged other nations to do the same. Lead sponsor Sen. Mark Hatfield (R-OR) was joined by five other Republicans, including future Secretary of Defense William Cohen of Maine and Maryland Sen. Charles “Mac” Mathias, along with five Democrats, including conservative Max Baucus of Montana.

This legislation was introduced during a period with the same increase in U.S. population numbers as now. I, too, firmly believe there are limits to growth, and ending population growth should be a goal and a mark of progress in the advance of civilization.

Gerald Winegrad ,Columnist

Gerald Winegrad represented the greater Annapolis area in the Legislature for 16 years, where he championed efforts to restore the Chesapeake Bay. He served on the tri-State Chesapeake Bay Commission and taught graduate courses in bay restoration and wildlife management he authored. Contact him at gwwabc@comcast.net.